US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) & PPI (May) The rebound in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to 94.6 in June, from 90.7, was impressive given the surge in gasoline prices over the past few weeks. It appears that the US... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Oil price effect to unwind, but deflation risks persist Headline inflation looks certain to rebound sharply in most advanced economies during the coming months as the impact of last year’s oil price slump unwinds. Looking further ahead, faster wage growth... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up in May but not enough to put the Reserve Bank’s inflation target under threat. 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: UK to exit deflation after just a month May’s inflation figures should show that deflation in the UK lasted for just a month. Admittedly, this would not mean that the risk of a prolonged period of low inflation has suddenly disappeared... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up to 2.1% y/y in May, but price pressures are still subdued. Against the backdrop of slower growth and weak commodity prices, we expect this to remain the case for the... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May. 15) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate nudged up in May, the big picture is that it remains very low in spite of the Riksbank’s aggressive policy easing. As such, the central bank will need to do... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s Sedlabanki begins hiking cycle Iceland’s central bank raised its main interest rates by 50bp today, as expected, in what looks likely to be the beginning of a tightening cycle designed to counter strong domestic demand growth and... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) If there were any lingering concerns that the weaker peso might trigger a rise in inflation in Mexico, the fact that CPI fell to below its 3% target last month should quash them. This supports our... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second estimate and breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that growth in the early months of the year was driven by domestic demand, presumably partly reflecting the positive effects of lower... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
