Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (May) & Hungary Retail Sales (Apr.) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 8.1% y/y, was driven by a pick-up in core price pressures and provides further evidence that the economy’s inflation problems are escalating. Elsewhere... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation will offer some relief to the ECB, but with underlying price pressures still very weak and the recovery seemingly slowing, strong monetary policy support will be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rate-cutting cycle has a little further to run Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the repo rate for the third time this year to 7.25% is unlikely to be the last in the current loosening cycle. But the RBI can't be... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in wage growth in April. In fact, we think that labour costs will continue to grow far too slowly to create broad-based price pressure. 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What happened to the oil windfall? So far this year, households in advanced economies do not seem to have been spending their windfall from lower oil prices. However, this is partly because they stepped up their consumption late last... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (May) May’s rise in German HICP inflation mainly reflected an anticipated increase in the energy component – underlying price pressures remain very weak even in the euro-zone’s strongest economies. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth eases in Q1 despite lower oil prices Growth in Emerging Asia eased slightly last quarter, despite the boost from lower oil prices. Weak exports haven’t helped, but it has been the reluctance of consumers to spend their windfall from... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Swedish GDP growth in Q1 came as little surprise after its sharp rise in Q4. But although the economy is still expanding, the breakdown was less than encouraging. Together with the... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Apr.) With economic activity sluggish and price pressures subdued despite a tighter labour market, we remain convinced that the Bank of Japan will have to step up the pace of easing before too long. 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Deflation and overseas risks to keep rate rise at bay Since June’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) comes just three weeks after the publication of the latest Inflation Report and recent data have not challenged its view that inflation will... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Which inflation measure should the Fed focus on? The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is being depressed by declines in the administered prices set by Congress for Medicare and Medicaid. In contrast, the CPI measure, which covers only... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia still looks vulnerable Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the fiscal squeeze boost inflation again? One upside risk to inflation is that the Conservatives try to plug some of the hole in the public finances by raising taxes on goods and services in the CPI basket. But given that they have ruled out... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the worst really over for Russia? The slump in activity data for April put an end to hopes raised in some parts of the government (and markets) that the worst is over for the Russian economy. The steep falls in output are likely to be... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
