Japan Economics Update Plunging phone charges another headwind for BoJ The steep cut to mobile phone charges announced by Japan’s largest wireless operator last week means that consumer price inflation may average only 1.0% next year rather than the 1.2% we had been... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Problems mount for Pakistan as Khan heads off to China Inflation can now be added to the list of problems facing Pakistan after figures published today showed headline inflation rose to a four-year high last month. Meanwhile, the chances of an improvement... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Figures suggest weak recovery in Nigeria & S. Africa Activity data released this week supported our view that economic conditions in Nigeria and South Africa were very weak in recent months. We think official GDP figures due out in late November and... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation trouble The slowdown in underlying inflation in the third quarter didn’t come as a shock to the RBA. But the bigger picture is that market forces are still keeping inflation subdued. And with early signs that... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Central bank independence at stake Rising tension between the government and the RBI has dominated headlines this week, and also caused jitters in local markets. This comes as little surprise - after all, at the heart of the matter is... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hints rates will rise quicker than markets expect The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates more quickly than markets expect, if a Brexit deal is struck. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Don’t expect a change in rates for at least three years The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 8th November, with recent encouraging economic data making a cut less likely. Even so, we... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its horses until late in 2020 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it holds interest rates steady at 1.50% on Melbourne Cup Day, which falls on Tuesday 6th November... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Uganda: Inflation will remain within target Price pressures eased in Kenya and Uganda in October, and we think that inflation will remain within target in both countries. Kenyan policymakers will probably keep their key rate on hold in 2019... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) October’s increase in euro-zone inflation supports the ECB’s judgement that underlying price pressures are gradually building despite the slowdown in activity over recent months. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with a number of moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility for the central bank... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) The drop in inflation in the third quarter back below the 2-3% target rate won’t frighten the RBA too much, but it does look more like a scary Halloween trick than a treat. We believe the RBA will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
