Africa Economics Weekly Cheaper oil both giveth and taketh away Lower oil prices will batter Africa’s big oil exporters. But they will benefit Africa’s oil importers, which make up the majority of the region’s GDP. Lower petrol prices will, for instance, sap... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hikes next year look unlikely While the Bank of Korea (BoK) hiked its policy rate today for the first time in a year, this is unlikely to mark the start of a tightening cycle. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Tokyo CPI (Nov.) The surge in industrial production in October is a strong sign that the economy returned to growth in the fourth quarter. That suggests that October’s weakening in the labour market data won’t be... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflation set to fall sharply The recent slump in crude oil prices means that the tailwind to consumer price inflation from soaring energy prices won’t be sustained. After boosting Australia’s headline inflation by 0.6 percentage... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation increased to a six-month high in October but this rise is likely to prove fleeting. Inflation will drop sharply at the start of next year as the effects of the new value-added tax and... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch On hold for now, but tightening cycle not over yet The recent drop in headline inflation, coupled with the sharp fall in global oil prices, should be enough to ensure that the RBI keeps policy rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold into 2019 Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate at 9.00% today, and we think that they will maintain the current policy stance going into next year. 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack The Philippines to gain from lower oil prices Most countries in the region are net oil importers (Malaysia is the key exception) and should gain from the recent drop in oil prices, with the Philippines likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slumping oil prices another headache for RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold rates steady at next week’s meeting and signal that the first hike is still some way off. With the downturn in the housing market continuing unabated and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil and inflation, Ghosn and corporate governance The slump in global oil prices will deliver a windfall to Japanese firms and households but it creates a headache for the Bank of Japan: lower energy prices will knock half a percentage point off... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The decline in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.25... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline inflation in October reflected a boost from fresh food and energy prices that won’t last. However, we expect overall inflation to settle around 1% over coming months as price... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
