UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The rise in regular pay growth to a fresh post-crisis high and weak productivity growth suggests that we are right to think that rates will rise further than is priced into markets next year if a... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) A renewed drop in food inflation pulled down headline inflation in October, but with core inflation rising again we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation remained elevated in October. But with core inflation subdued and producer price inflation easing, we doubt policymakers will be too concerned. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates set to stay on hold in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia today left interest rates unchanged at 3.25% and gave no hint in its accompanying statement that it is in a rush to change its policy stance anytime soon. Whereas the consensus is... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in October following a renewed drop in food inflation. This may prove enough to keep the RBI on the side-lines in its meeting next month. But with core... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland hikes and signals more to come Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) & PPI (Sep.) October’s PMI data suggest that most of the major euro-zone economies will perform a little better in Q4 than in Q3. The exception is Italy, where the PMI implies that output contracted. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
