Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Past the peak Global growth is likely to ease over the next two years, led by slowdowns in the US and China. Although headline inflation should drop back in many advanced economies next year, core inflation will... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest tightening cycle not over yet The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting show that, despite keeping rates on hold, the MPC continues to place great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp drop in headline inflation will not prevent the Bank of Canada from following through with a widely-expected rate rise at its meeting next week. But further falls in... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) While underlying inflation didn’t rise any further in September, we think it will strengthen as firms pass on higher labour costs and domestic demand strengthens ahead of the tax hike. However... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in September takes the pressure off the Monetary Policy Committee to act before it knows the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Policymakers are likely to look through the latest pick-up in consumer price inflation and focus instead on evidence of cooling economic momentum, including slower core inflation and weaker factory... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The jump in inflation from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.9% in Q3 was largely driven by higher energy prices and won’t allow the RBNZ to conclude that underlying price pressures are strengthening. While Q3’s data... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in September was due in large part due to a significant rebound in food inflation. But core inflation also remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
