Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa Budget, SARB new MPC member

South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but fiscal pressures before and after May’s election are likely to derail the plans. The debt-to-GDP ratio will...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions

The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

April back in play for first interest rate cut

The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait...

23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom

The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary...

23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Bank of Thailand under pressure to cut interest rates

Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – with GDP just 0.5% bigger than it was in the final quarter of 2019. While much of the weakness is due to the slow...

23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Survey data point to resilience in economic activity

Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to...

23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe

Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Why has euro-zone services inflation stopped falling?

The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year...

22nd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024)

The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be...

22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read