Chief Economist's Note China, inflation, trade wars – Your frequently asked questions Our meetings with clients in the Middle East and Asia last week took in discussion across a full range of macro and market issues, but the same three questions kept coming up: How should we read China... 4th March 2024
Europe Rapid Response Switzerland CPI (Feb. 2024) The period of disinflation in Switzerland is close to an end, but with inflation likely to remain close to 1% for the foreseeable future we think policymakers will start lowering interest rates later... 4th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 67.1% y/y in February adds to our concerns given that it comes on the back of a large increase in inflation in January and the strength of... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slight improvement in industry February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate hike, Kenya inflation, Zambia debt deal The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp interest rate hike should help provide respite to the naira and help to curb inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from interventionist fiscal and FX short... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and Biden to take centre stage Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB patient, SNB eyeing early rate cut This week's data releases will have reinforced the view of ECB policymakers that they should be patient before beginning to loosen monetary policy. Indeed, the monthly pace of services inflation... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting consumption patterns, world-beating growth The much-awaited Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2022-23 showed a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey over a decade ago, underscoring the need to re-weight India’s CPI... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally ticked up last month, but still suggest that industrial sectors remained weak. In contrast, the increases in the PMIs in Turkey... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will not be swayed by weak industrial output We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong capex growth to ease capacity pressures There are growing signs that restrictive policy settings are working to establish a more sustainable balance between demand and supply in the Australian economy. Indeed, inflation has continued to... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Although the economy returned to growth last quarter, spare capacity continues to accrue, and we expect CPI inflation to return to the 2% target by the third quarter. That leaves scope for the Bank of... 29th February 2024 · 0 mins read
