US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 29th February 2024, 3:00PM GMT An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.
Global Economics Update Can we still rely on the PMIs? The S&P Global PMI surveys have not been fully reliable guides to activity in major advanced economies over the past few years. But their relationship with GDP outside the US is still fairly strong... 21st February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle even... 21st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: fresh naira falls to curb growth Nigeria saw sluggish growth over the second half of last year, and the latest falls in the naira mean inflation is set to rise even further over the coming months, which should prompt the central bank... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: inflation pressures starting to re-surface Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) While the larger-than-expected drop in headline inflation in January was partly driven by weaker than expected energy inflation, the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see the more marked easing in its... 20th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region... 20th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly PPI a kick in the teeth for inflation doves The much stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI in January came as a hammer blow for PCE estimates. Coming on the heels of the hot 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI, our calculations now... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Soft landing intact as mild recession nearing an end It’s debatable whether the small falls in GDP should be considered a recession, although the decline in GDP per capita has been larger. Either way, timely indicators suggest the economy may be coming... 16th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t expect a strong rebound in Germany The German government’s reduction in its forecast for GDP growth from 1.3% to 0.2% brings it closer to our long-held view that the economy will not grow at all this year. But there are growing risks... 16th February 2024 · 7 mins read
