Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US rate expectations have further to rise The adverse market reaction to the slightly more hawkish tone of comments from the Fed yesterday looks justified to us. Indeed, market expectations for US interest rates are likely to rise further... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble The Zambian kwacha has become the latest African currency to come under fire, and has this month slumped to an all-time low against the US$. This follows similar falls in the Ghanaian cedi and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s battle with deflation goes on The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Hand of People’s Bank seen in currency fall A rare trade deficit in February relieved some of the upward pressure on therenminbi, but the latest data suggest that the People’s Bank (PBOC) additionally purchased around $25bn of foreign exchange... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Quebec might do better with its own currency Pauline Marois, leader of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ), has suggested that an independent Quebec could hold a seat on the governing council of the Bank of Canada and retain the Canadian dollar... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK equities still not benefiting from the economic recovery Despite the comparative strength of the UK’s economic recovery, UK equity prices have continued to underperform those in other developed markets. While the recent underperformance may have partly... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The kiwi can fly! New Zealand dollar to remain high It is tempting to conclude that the New Zealand dollar is set to fall sharply. After all, on several measures, it is the most overvalued of the G10 currencies. But with the key driver behind the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor New Zealand kiwi likely to remain overvalued The real effective exchange (REER) rate of the New Zealand dollar is around 20% higher than its average over the past ten years. But we are forecasting only a small depreciation in the kiwi, even as... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in Emerging Asia to remain subdued Inflation in Emerging Asia has fallen back over the past few months and remains low by historical standards. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain fairly benign. Currency weakness over the past... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentals The People's Bank (PBOC) is keen to signal that this weekend's widening of the renminbi's trading band means that the currency's days as a "one-way bet" are over. But fundamentals still point to a... 16th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Investors’ appetite returns, but is fussy Despite the crisis in Ukraine, which has hit some currencies and assets in Emerging Europe hard, there are signs that investors are rediscovering an appetite for investing in selected emerging markets... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Italy’s and Spain’s sovereign credit spreads fall further 10-year government bond yields in Italy and Spain continued to decline in February. Admittedly, yield spreads over 10-year German Bunds seem reasonable given the countries’ current sovereign credit... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone consumers yet to join the recovery While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will be the wider fallout from conflict in Ukraine? The crisis in Ukraine has the potential to have a further significant and prolonged impact on global financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to be short... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
