Latin America Economics Update A sluggish start to 2014 Latin American financial markets have had a soft start to 2014, with currencies continuing to fall against the US dollar, benchmark equities declining and the regional EMBI bond yields rising. Looking... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts shrug off falling unemployment The gilt market has largely shrugged off the recent strong news on the UK economy, including the sharp fall in unemployment to within a whisker of the 7% threshold used for the MPC’s forward guidance... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada no longer the safe haven it was Attracted by relatively low government debt, a stronger economic recovery and its healthier banks, foreign investors took a shine to Canadian assets in the aftermath of the financial crisis. More... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are euro-zone government bonds favourably valued? Government bond yields have continued to fall in much of the euro-zone in response to improving economic conditions. Spreads over German Bunds have fallen to multi-year lows in many nations. But... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China to slow, but faster growth elsewhere Most of Emerging Asia should enjoy a steady recovery in 2014-15 on the back of loose monetary policy and an expected recovery in the developed world. China is the main exception. Recently announced... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Undervaluation unlikely to prevent further yen weakness The yen is now “undervalued” on most measures. However, deviations from fundamental value can, of course, persist for a very long time and should not prove an obstacle to fresh declines. We continue... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Our key market calls for 2014 As the Fed gradually begins to scale back its monetary stimulus this year, we expect the dollar to rise and government bond yields to continue to drift higher. We also think investors’ appetite for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira may trigger Turkish rate hike The Turkish central bank has been extremely reluctant to raise official interest rates over the past year or so. However, the recent fall in the lira may now force its hand. On balance, we think it is... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Large-scale currency intervention set to continue Pledges by the People's Bank to end currency intervention are likely to crumble in the face of sustained pressure on the renminbi to appreciate. We think that China's central bank could accumulate... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian stocks soar to post-Arab Spring high The Egyptian stock market has hit a post-"Arab Spring" high. This comes on the back of signs that the economy may finally be finding its feet as well as recent progress towards fresh elections. 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets shrug off Fed tapering Asian financial markets took the Fed’s decision last week to taper its asset purchases under QE3 largely in their stride. Currencies fell, but not by much, while equity markets on the whole were up... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities slump, market rates surge China’s interbank rates have surged this week on the back of seasonal tightness in liquidity that has been compounded by uncertainty about policymakers’ intentions. But with the People’s Bank today... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
