Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF deals and Gulf aid spare MENA’s non-oil producers In spite of their large current account deficits, the MENA region’s non-oil economies have stayed out of the spotlight during the recent turmoil in EM financial markets thanks, it seems, to IMF... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the SARB’s surprise The dust is still settling on the SARB’s unexpected decision to hike interest rates yesterday, with the rand strengthening slightly against the US$ so far today. Nevertheless, the currency is still... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Are emerging market currencies now undervalued? Almost all emerging market currencies have depreciated further against the dollar over the past month. Looking at the real effective exchange rates of emerging markets, 20 of the 24 currencies we... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How to interpret the Nikkei-yen correlation There have recently been few relationships which are more reliable than the tight correlation between the level of the Nikkei and the yen/dollar exchange rate. We are wary of simply extrapolating a... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets rally on hopes for political stability The Egyptian stock market has rallied in recent days amid growing optimism about the prospects for political stability. The recently approved constitution paves the way for elections to take place... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia escaping the worst of recent EM turmoil Asia has escaped the worst of the latest sell-off in EM assets. What’s more, some of the economies that were hit hardest during the turmoil of last summer have proved more resilient this time around. 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can EM equities shrug off rising Treasury yields? One reason for the current nervousness in emerging markets (EMs) is of course the Fed's decision to begin tapering its asset purchases. However, suggestions that EM equities will inevitably struggle... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela is unlikely to follow Argentina’s lead The parallels between the current economic situations in Argentina and Venezuela only go so far. While both economies have been ravaged by rampant inflation in recent years and haven depleted their... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: assessing the impact of the mining sector strikes The latest outbreak of strikes has cast a spotlight back on the problems in South Africa’s mining sector. Although it is difficult to predict how events will pan out from here, the disruption of... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fall-out from emerging market instability should be short-lived Although some currencies have fallen sharply this month, it still does not seem right to talk about a new financial crisis sweeping across all emerging markets (EMs). What’s more, the economic... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next for the Argentine peso? The recent market turmoil increases the likelihood of another 50bp interest rate hike in Brazil, but policymakers elsewhere in the region are unlikely to tighten monetary policy unless the currency... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar due for a temporary bounce The Canadian dollar's sharp decline over the past few weeks seems a tad overdone and we wouldn't be surprised if it enjoyed a modest rebound over the coming month or so. As the incoming economic data... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand plunges to five-year low The South African rand has slumped to a five-year low over the past couple of days – in the process breaking through our end-year forecast of 11/$, which itself had been at the bottom end of consensus... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Beyond the taper As the Fed gradually scales back its unconventional monetary stimulus, we expect the dollar to rise against the other major developed currencies. We also expect government bond yields to increase... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
