EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should support EM equities One reason to be relatively optimistic about emerging market equities is their low valuation relative to their developed market counterparts. For example, price/12m forward earnings ratios are around... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Underperformance of Japan's stock market may end soon In April, major stock indices edged higher in the US and Europe but fell further in Japan. We think equities in the US are likely to struggle as the Fed becomes less accommodative, and our end-2015... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Steady as she goes We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Further RMB weakening tests the PBOC’s nerves After large-scale intervention succeeded in weakening the renminbi and rattling many investors, there are tentative signs that the People’s Bank is now trying to introduce some stability. 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities record a solid month Most of Asia’s stock markets recorded gains in April, buoyed by capital inflows. The positive sentiment toward Asian equities appears to reflect an easing of fears over a hard landing in China, as... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Big fall in Brazilian real is behind us but sustained rally unlikely Having been one of worst performing EM currencies in 2013, the Brazilian real has been one of the best performers so far in 2014, prompting speculation that it will strengthen further from here. We’re... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE and Qatar equities rally ahead of MSCI upgrade Equity markets in the UAE and Qatar have rallied in the past month ahead of their upgrade to emerging market status by MSCI. By contrast, the Egyptian stock market has had a relatively disappointing... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets regain some composure after Q1 rout Following a woeful Q1, financial markets in Africa have stabilised in the early part of Q2. In most countries, bond yields have edged down and currencies have made modest gains. Nevertheless, there... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields defy strong economic news Despite further signs that the UK’s economic recovery has remained strong, gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month. Indeed, the 10-year gilt yield recently touched a six-month low... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1) Despite a surge in bank loans and relatively loose interbank liquidity conditions in March, today's data show that the credit slowdown is still on track. Meanwhile, although the foreign exchange... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
