Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MOU and the path to recovery, Egyptian pound rallies The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is a major step towards a resolution of the conflict and a recovery in Gulf... 18th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three questions for Treasuries in the Fed’s new era A sustained rally in Treasuries is, in our view, unlikely over the next year or so, given the macro backdrop and what we’ve heard from the first press conference under the new Fed Chair. 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Volatility may weigh on semiconductor stocks Semiconductor stocks appear increasingly volatile relative to the broader stock market. While that alone is hardly cause for them to underperform, it could become a headwind to them if it continues. 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Some reasons for caution, but not panic, on the S&P 500 Despite some warning signs under the hood of the S&P 500’s rally, we aren’t ready to call time on it yet. The market could make further gains, potentially quite large ones, before running into any... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More upside for global equities after the end of the war? Although MSCI’s ACWI Index of global equities is already more than 7% higher than before the start of the Iran war, this weekend’s fragile peace deal may keep it rallying further in the near term. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update How has the AI rally affected global equity valuations? The extent to which the AI-related rally in stock markets over recent years has been driven by (expected) earnings or valuations depends on how you measure these things. But in general, stocks in... 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Is the S&P 500 really value for money? The valuation of the S&P 500 continues to look very stretched after accounting for the ‘noise’ of the earnings cycle. This is one sign that we may be in the ‘blow-off’ phase of the AI-fuelled rally. 16th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US IPO wave adds another red flag to the AI boom Asset markets have rebounded on the latest reports of (yet another) imminent US-Iran peace deal, but the bigger test facing the US equity market is arguably the incoming mega-IPOs, the first of which... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update What risk does the IPO boom pose to the stock market? Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee support measures buy time, but aren’t a solution The combined RBI and government package of measures to support the rupee unveiled last Friday appears to have halted the currency’s slide, but it has failed to trigger a meaningful recovery. A... 12th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on track to hike despite Ueda’s absence Following his unexpected hospitalisation, Governor Ueda will miss next week's BoJ meeting. However, with inflation pressures continuing to build, there will almost certainly still be a majority in... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB falls for it again, but the euro is unlikely to benefit Faced with spiking energy prices and a slowing economy, policymakers have, in line with past ECB practice, put the emphasis on the inflation threat. If previous similar episodes are any guide, today’s... 11th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Interest rate tail risks and equities US equities are influenced by the distribution of investors’ fed funds rate expectations, not just the average level of them. A perceived reduction in overall tail risks is one factor that has... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Pace of tightening set to accelerate BoJ Board members have signalled that they will lift the policy rate next week. And with inflationary pressures set to strengthen, the Bank will probably accelerate its tightening cycle thereafter. We... 10th June 2026 · 7 mins read
