Capital Daily We doubt the rout in JGBs will deepen While JGBs have been caught up in the latest chapter of the global bond market rout, we don’t expect them to continue to come under a lot of fire. 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus AI debt boom: implications for Treasuries and corporate bonds Corporate bond issuance by AI-related firms has surged over the past year, particularly at the long end of the curve. This could push up Treasury term premia before long if it continues at this rate... 24th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update Solving the US debt problem could be bad for Treasuries It’s a misconception that lower Treasury yields are essential to solving the US debt problem. Admittedly, Treasury yields may fall if, as we saw in the 1990s, the solution mainly involves fiscal... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in OAT-Bund spread has further to run The spread between the 10-year French and German government bond yields has reached its widest level in over a decade, and we think it will widen further next year as investors’ concerns about France... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Debt issuance may raise AI stocks’ exposure to yields That AI-related stock market sectors have tended to fare best when oil prices have tumbled partly reflects their high market betas and, increasingly, their sensitivity to bond yields as AI-related... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch One more and done for the RBA With some of the upside inflation risks it had warned about now crystallising, the RBA is almost certain to hike rates by 25bp at its September meeting. However, we believe that will mark the end of... 22nd September 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The AI bubble hasn’t burst yet We don’t think the fall in tech stocks’ relative valuations means the AI bubble has burst yet, and the rally may have a bit further to go. Meanwhile, there’s potential for market-moving news at the US... 21st September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ undermines yen rally, again Those hoping that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest meeting would help deliver a stronger yen were, once again, left disappointed. At this point, any yen rally will likely need to be driven by a shift... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening need not spell trouble Japan's fiscal stance is turning more expansionary, but we think concerns about the public finances are overdone. The budget deficit is likely to remain contained, while both gross and net debt ratios... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Warsh puts his foot down, boosting the dollar While much of the drop in long-term government bond yields over the past couple of days reflects relief from lower oil prices, policy news from the Fed and the BoE (which has slowed its QT programme)... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why there may still be hope for Gilts We expect Gilt yields to fall over the next year as the Bank of England doesn’t deliver on the amount of tightening that is priced into money markets. But given the potential for oil prices to rise... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stage is set for RBI rate hikes After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average 7% from 2026-2028, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on... 16th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily AI news and bond rout weaken the case for an equity rebound While renewed enthusiasm for AI or a substantial retreat in US Treasury yields could breathe fresh life into the S&P 500, neither is looking very likely at the moment. That’s making us less confident... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
