Capital Daily This all-time high looks on a (slightly) firmer footing The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further... 6th August 2026 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Your questions on Japan’s markets answered The yen had weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar before FX intervention prompted a rebound last week, while the 10-year JGB yield is close to multi-year highs. This Update answers key client... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update 2024-style carry trade unwind still appears unlikely While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along... 5th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? While PM Takaichi intends to abandon “excessive austerity” and is trying to steer the BoJ in a more dovish direction, we don’t believe that her policies pose a major risk for Japan’s economic outlook... 5th August 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar’s recent drop We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US... 4th August 2026 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027 We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again... 4th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Equities Update Indian equities to outperform amidst global AI sell-off We think that strong fundamentals and India’s lower exposure than many to AI stocks will lead the MSCI India to outperform all other markets over the next 18 months. 3rd August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (August 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Data released over the past month showed that Australia's labour market, housing market, and... 3rd August 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What explains the AI-related rebound? While investors’ faith in the AI narrative has been shaken over the past couple of months, the fact remains that there is no clear sign of demand for AI faltering. That may help to explain the rebound... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Sixth(!) time the charm for the yen? Intervention in support of the yen may not work any better now than it has previously, but the persistence of the Japanese authorities suggests to us that the yen will remain around the 160 level this... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am FX outperformance unlikely to last Currencies in Latin American have fared better than those of other EMs over July, but we expect that outperformance to reverse, with currencies depreciating against the dollar over the next 12-18... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily We really need to talk about Kevin now Market participants gave Fed Chair Warsh’s second press conference two thumbs down. If he is serious about taking guidance from market prices rather than dishing it out, a course correction is in... 30th July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
