Capital Daily Could bonds bring equities back down to Earth again? Last Friday’s pullback in US equities, as Treasury yields soared in the wake of a strong employment report, suggests bonds might be the straw that eventually breaks the stock market’s back. 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back under pressure, and relief may be uneven Inflation – and central banks’ response to it – may continue to be a thorn in the side of the bond market for a while. But, there’s still limited evidence in markets of runaway inflation expectations... 8th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Booming payrolls point to higher UST yields & stronger dollar Another robust US non-farm payrolls report means our central forecast is now that the FOMC raises the fed funds rate later this year. In turn, that implies a further rise in US Treasury yields and the... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes not a threat to the global bond rally It’s increasingly clear the Bank of Japan will resume its hiking cycle this month; on its own we don’t think that’s a big threat to global bond markets even if the central bank ultimately moves more... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Good times still on the way for China’s equities We still think China’s equities will benefit from the AI boom and fare well over the rest of the year, but their poor profitability is a growing challenge. 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A fundamental or speculative surge in the S&P 500? The S&P 500 broke through 7,600 yesterday for the first time ever. With that in mind, has its AI-related surge since the end of 2022 been fuelled by earnings or the price investors are willing to pay... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace deal still MIA; markets still don’t mind A US-Iran peace deal has, yet again, failed to materialise despite reports that one is imminent. But, in spite of another round of tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend, market participants continue to... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily The fate of one of the war’s best hedges China’s government bonds – unlike those almost everywhere else – have largely shrugged off the conflict. We think their medium-run prospects are bright even if a US-Iran deal renders obsolete their... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation could derail the equity market if there is no peace deal Soft data and (another) potential US-Iran deal offer hope that the US is not set for sustained bout of high inflation. But if inflation does stay higher for longer, history suggests that would be a... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Focus Will inflation derail the equity rally? Past form suggests that a sustained period of high inflation would be a headwind to the US stock market and the outperformance of the so-called ‘big tech’ sectors. But inflation would probably need to... 28th May 2026 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
