Capital Daily Will term premia plunge again when the AI bubble bursts? Although there are many reasons to expect recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury term premium to persist, they could collectively be more than outweighed for a while by a bursting of the... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think it will accelerate from here. Inflation held steady or slowed, including in Nigeria and South Africa... 24th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily More bond pressure, more AI wobbles We don’t think it’s time to panic about long-dated government bonds, even though the headwinds they face are gathering strength. 24th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Term premia aren’t the only risk to Treasuries Although the main cause of weakness in long-dated Treasury bonds at the moment seems to be rising term premia, increasing ‘risk-neutral’ yields could prove just as problematic to them in the longer... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food inflation slump, Ethiopia FX, Zambia election The fall in South African inflation in July is likely to be followed by a pick-up in the coming months due to unfavourable base effects. But underlying inflation pressures, as well as food inflation... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets and underlying inflation under control? Since the Iran war began, the sell-off in euro-zone government bond markets has been greatest in countries with high and/or rising public debt. We forecast yields across the currency union to fall... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Bessent won’t keep the bond vigilantes at bay forever We suspect long-dated Treasury yields will stabilise over the next few weeks as some calm is restored following the recent bout of volatility in global sovereign bond markets. But we expect term... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily USD: Our currency, our problem? The dollar has come under renewed pressure, in part due to a resurgent “debasement” narrative. While we continue to think such concerns are somewhat overblown, and that the economic backdrop overall... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily AI explains why US equities are largely indifferent to bonds Today’s big retreat in long-dated Treasury yields, triggered by the news of a doubling of liquidity support, gave the S&P 500 a fillip after a prior slump in bonds had begun to take a toll on the... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Franc to rally when AI bubble bursts The bursting of the AI bubble that we suspect will happen next year, and the resulting pick-up in safe-haven demand, would most likely cause the franc to appreciate against the euro. 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Groundhog day for bonds; what to make of the sell-off While long-term government bond yields have dropped back a little today, their recent surge suggests investors are losing patience with fiscal profligacy. But unless the sell-off intensifies, equities... 18th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about the bond market sell-off The recent bond market sell-off appears to reflect investors demanding greater compensation for fiscal, geopolitical and policy uncertainty. We expect this shift to prove relatively persistent. The... 18th August 2026 · 15 mins read
