Capital Daily Tech’s growing vulnerability to rising yields Tech companies’ spending boom has arguably made them more vulnerable to borrowing costs, and they won’t get much relief from the Fed if the recent meeting is anything to go by. Our base case remains... 29th October 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget... 28th October 2026 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily “No harm” budget keeps Gilts out of the firing line Today’s UK budget announcement has proven the non-event that newly-minted Chancellor Healey had signalled in advance. While his first budget is hardly inspiring, it contrasts favourably with the... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s FX war chest is smaller than it looks The RBI’s FX reserves look plentiful but the headline figure overstates the central bank’s firepower, owing to a swollen forward book and sizeable holdings of gold. A renewed, sustained bout of rupee... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive... 28th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound not a cause for panic The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fall in yields won’t necessarily reduce the debt burden While this week's fall in bond yields will be a welcome development for the Treasury, it doesn't mean that fiscal risks have diminished. Yields are still higher than they were just a few months ago... 23rd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Average firm unlikely to shrug off an AI bust Most firms in the S&P 500 have so far managed to shrug off the falls in tech stocks over recent days, thanks in large part to a boost from falling Treasury yields. But we expect tech stocks, non-tech... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly French bond rout raises the stakes for the UK Budget Recent developments in the French bond market strengthen the case for a prudent UK Budget on Wednesday. But the government still has room to act. We expect some temporary cost-of-living support and... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so... 23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The macroeconomic limitations on S&P 500 earnings growth Although S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have grown far more quickly than the US economy since the start of the AI revolution, this isn’t bound to last even if Q3 2026 is another bumper earnings... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) After a very strong run, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth is still on course to average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon will push... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
