US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weaker yen should lift inflation before long While any boost from higher energy costs to consumer prices will be short-lived, the continued weakening of the yen will provide a more longer lasting boost to consumer prices in Japan. Accordingly... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much extra borrowing will the bond market tolerate? The markets would probably tolerate a rise in borrowing provided it is not too big (perhaps of up to about £15bn or 0.5% of GDP), it is primarily to invest, and it comes alongside a credible... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2026) The stagnation in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June (CE -0.2%, consensus 0.0%) shows that the rise in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to weigh on the housing market... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing downturn has further to run Australian house prices continued to decline in June, and we think they won’t bottom out until early next year. Although much ink has been spilt about recent housing tax changes, they have yet to have... 1st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ set to hike, but it will be a close-run thing We expect the RBNZ to begin its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp hike. With firms’ pricing intentions elevated, the Bank will want to guard against higher near-term inflation becoming embedded... 1st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US strength points to renewed policy divergence With risks surrounding the Iran conflict receding, the focus is shifting back to domestic economic fundamentals, which point to widening growth and policy divergence across the major economies. The US... 30th June 2026 · 45 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr. 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in April extended beyond solely the oil and gas sector and, paired with the advance estimate of a 0.1% rise in May, leaves second-quarter GDP growth on... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (June 2026) The minutes of the June meeting confirmed that the Board’s decision to leave rates on hold was unanimous. Broadly speaking, however, the minutes revealed that the hold was a hawkish one, with the... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Labour Market (May 26) 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook CUSMA uncertainty to slow recovery, delay rate hikes Uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will slow the recovery, with average annual GDP growth a below-consensus 0.5% this year. A return to firmer growth of 1.7% in 2027 should see core price... 29th June 2026 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) The continued weakness in some leading indicators of buyer sentiment suggests that the risks to our view that house prices will rise by 1.5% in the year to Q4 2026 lie to the downside. However, if... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish infrastructure push emblematic of broader woes The announcement that the Major Projects Office will grant three infrastructure projects "national interest" status later this year means little for the growth outlook given there are still multiple... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly AI boom supporting growth and pushing up prices The fall in WTI to below $70pb has reduced the urgency for the Fed to raise rates, with futures shifting to pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bp hike by the September meeting, down from 95% last week... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
