Capital Daily Markets aren’t braced for an ‘extreme’ scenario in the Iran war The Iran war poses two key threats to the global economy – higher inflation and weaker growth. Up until now, the markets have responded to the first but seemingly ignored – or at least ‘looked through... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr 2026) The April retail sales data were a little softer than we expected but still lead us to estimate that real consumption edged up by 0.1% m/m last month. Moreover, the upward revisions to control group... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar./Q1 2026) GDP rose by a bumper 0.6% q/q in Q1 (consensus and CE forecast 0.6%), but this will be the high point for the year given the effects of the war in Iran will sap growth from Q2. In our baseline... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2026) The recent plunge in buyer sentiment triggered by the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran appeared to stabilise in April. Even so, April’s RICS survey continues to suggest that the... 14th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Apr 2026) April’s stronger-than-expected PPI figures have little bearing on our estimate for a 0.30% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in April. While still above the target-consistent pace, that is not as... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Big falls in nominal house prices unlikely, even in adverse scenario Despite its recent resilience, house price growth will probably slow over the coming months as the drag from higher mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war continues to grow. But big outright falls... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) Although wage growth eased a touch in Q1, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures could soon bubble up again. As a result, we still think the RBA has more work to do. 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget leaves RBA to do the heavy lifting on inflation The Australian government’s 2026/27 Budget does little to move the needle on fiscal policy. Although Commonwealth coffers will benefit from a windfall driven by higher commodity prices, much of this... 12th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack - Iran War Edition (May 2026) While Gulf economies have already taken a big hit from the Iran war, the effect on activity in major economies seems to have been limited so far. Inflation has begun to rise and will continue to do so... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The 0.4% m/m gain in core CPI in April was largely due to the expected jump in owners’ equivalent rent and another gain in airfares, rather than reflecting a significant broadening of inflation... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2026) The barely changed level of existing home sales in April shows how elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are dissuading homebuying. With the full impact of the recent rise in borrowing... 11th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly CIT ruling only a minor setback for the administration The federal court ruling this week that the administration unlawfully imposed the 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1974 is only a minor setback for Trump’s tariff... 8th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Signs of stability rather than green shoots for housing The local real estate board data for April were encouraging, with sales rebounding across the major cities and prices stabilising in Toronto after a long stretch of declines. Nonetheless, with the... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr 2026) The rise in the unemployment rate to a six-month high of 6.9% has trimmed investors’ overly hawkish interest rate expectations and supports our view that, with the labour market in a funk and a... 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr. 2026) The solid 115,000 rise in payroll employment in April and still-muted 4.3% unemployment rate add to the reasons for the Fed to remain on hold for now. The reduced reliance of hiring on healthcare in... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political change won’t alter economic and fiscal constraints Once a fuller picture of the results emerges later today and tomorrow, yesterday’s local elections could be historic as it could bring an end to Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister and highlight that... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
