UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
US Rapid Response US Section 122 Tariff Ruling The narrow Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling against the Trump administration’s 10% Section 122 tariffs does not have any immediate implications for the US effective tariff rate, but it raises... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Apr. 2026) The small fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in April suggests the housing market has been less resilient to the jump in mortgage rates triggered by the Iran war than the alternative... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Risks remain tilted towards BoJ holding its fire We suspect the Bank of Japan won't read too much into the slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo in April, nor will it see the recent rally in the yen as a precursor to softer imported inflation. However... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow regardless of Budget While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will unveil large savings in the upcoming Budget, most of those will probably be used to finance higher spending. The key point though is... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Mar. 26) While wage growth softened a little in March, it remains strong enough to prompt the Bank of Japan to hike rates as soon as downside risks from the Iran War start to abate. 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher energy prices will lift building costs On their own, the recent surge in crude oil prices could lift construction costs by around 4%. However, the bigger picture is that in contrast to the previous energy shock in 2022, conditions in... 7th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2026) The slight fall in the jobless rate in Q1 won’t change the RBNZ’s assessment that labour market is operating with substantial excess capacity. Accordingly, we continue to believe that the Bank won’t... 6th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2026) The unchanged level of the ISM Services Prices Paid Index at 70.7 in April is not the worst outcome, given its manufacturing counterpart surged to a four-year high of 84.6 in the same month. Even so... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar. 2026) The modest widening of the trade deficit in March, despite another solid rise in goods exports, was less about insatiable AI-driven demand for computer hardware than in recent months, and more about a... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2026) The oil-price-driven improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March overstates the health of the export sector, with total export volumes falling despite a big rise in the volatile gold sector... 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hikes again, but sees risks as more two-sided The RBA’s decision to hike rates again at its meeting today came as little surprise. In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock argued that with policy settings mildly restrictive again... 5th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2026) Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely. 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Mar./Q1 2026) With household spending holding up well in the face of the oil price shock, the RBA is unlikely to have major qualms about tightening policy further. 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank could still thread the (narrowing) policy needle We still see scope for the Bank of Canada to stall rate hikes until early next year given the looming CUSMA renegotiation and lack of major fiscal stimulus. However, with global oil benchmarks back... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
