Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Lending standards tightening, but only modestly The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) showed a sharp tightening of mortgage lending standards, but we already know that has not been enough to prevent a resurgence in... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think Gilts are poised to outperform We think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts in the UK next year. If we’re correct, that could propel Gilts to the top of the class for local-currency returns over the... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Sticky core inflation; debt ceiling stand-off continues The April CPI release showed core inflation still remains elevated, but that won't prompt the Fed to resume hiking interest rates when the debt ceiling stand-off looks set to go down to the wire early... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Manufacturing will boom while incentives last The sharp rise in US manufacturing construction over the past two years is likely to continue into the medium term as firms take advantage of favourable government incentives. But as these expire... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s improved outlook for activity The most striking thing about the Bank of England’s policy meeting yesterday was the big upward revisions to the Bank’s real GDP forecasts. It makes sense that the Bank has become less downbeat... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (May 2023) This revamped Global Markets Valuations Monitor combines and replaces our previous DM Valuations Monitor and EM Valuations Monitor publications. 12th May 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Why we continue to think sterling will depreciate We doubt sterling’s strong run will continue; we still think that an economic downturn in the UK and other advanced economies will lead to renewed downward pressure on sterling later this year. 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s improving labour market There is no sign yet that the remarkable improvement in France’s labour market is going into reverse. But we suspect it will do later this year as monetary policy tightening takes effect. Meanwhile... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand to maintain budget discipline We’re inclined to take Prime Minister Hipkins at his word that the New Zealand government will hand down a fiscally responsible budget next week. We expect government priorities, including cost-of... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Next year’s Shunto will disappoint the BoJ Ueda’s speech in the Diet on Tuesday left open the possibility of the Bank adjusting monetary policy before the policy review announced at the April meeting is completed next year. However, given that... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Mar. & Q1) The news that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m in March and grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1 as a whole (consensus +0.1% q/q, Bank of England 0.0% q/q, CE +0.1% q/q) suggests that lower real household... 12th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily BoE gives little away, but we still expect lower gilt yields While we would not be surprised if the Bank of England raises rates by a bit more in the coming months, we think investors are underestimating the scope for rate cuts further ahead. We expect this to... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update If we’re not there already, the peak in interest rates is close Today’s 25 basis point rise in interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% takes rates to our long-held forecast and may be the last hike, although one or two more hikes are possible. We suspect the subsequent... 11th May 2023 · 4 mins read
