UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April and the rebound in core inflation to a new 31-year high. We now think it will raise interest rates... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s PMIs suggest that economic growth is being supported by the services sector while manufacturing activity continues to contract. The strength in services activity may be supporting persistent... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong auto sector rebound probably largely in the past The rebound in global auto production and sales over the past year has been partly responsible for the better-than-expected activity data over the past several months. And with auto sales in most... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election, due... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on exports National GDP data released so far suggest that euro-zone exports rose in Q1. However we suspect they will be more subdued in the coming quarters as a result of weak global growth. 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour activity and costs appear to be turning More convincing evidence of a loosening in the labour market and an easing in labour costs growth has started to emerge. It may not prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rate above 4.50%... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
