US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) Solid gains in retail sales and manufacturing output in April indicate that the economy remains resilient to the impact of higher interest rates and tightening lending standards. That said, real... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The labour market has been remarkably strong so far this year and we think it will continue to hold up much better than the GDP data might suggest in the coming quarters. 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) The labour market loosened by a bit more than the Bank of England expected in March. That may alleviate some pressure on the Bank to raise rates above 4.50% at the next policy meeting in June. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will prompt pause in quantitative tightening The RBA’s balance sheet has barely shrunk since it decided to stop reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds. While pressing ahead with quantitative tightening would make it easier for the Bank to... 16th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (May) House prices rose by even more than we anticipated in April and the sales-to-new listing ratio points to further gains ahead. Housing starts also jumped last month, but the rising inventory of newly... 15th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
