UK Economics Update Ingredients in place for lower food price inflation A combination of the falls in global agricultural commodity prices, energy prices and wage growth will soon drag down food CPI inflation from a 46-year high of 19.6% in March perhaps to around 4.5% by... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The slight rise in mortgage applications in April left them little changed from their recent lows, pointing to further near-term weakness in sales. While we expect affordability will gradually improve... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) While retail sales values rose at a decent pace in March, we estimate that sales volumes fell the most since 2021’s lockdowns last quarter and that weakness has further to run. That in turn should... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fall in job openings points to slower wage growth The decline in job openings to a near two-year low of 9.6 million in March, from a peak of 12.1 million a year earlier, suggests that, even without a rise in the unemployment rate, labour market... 2nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The pause in house price falls in April suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates has allowed prices to stabilise. But with affordability still very stretched by historical... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle over but rate cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the coming months... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What to do about Japan’s large corporate surplus? Japan’s large corporate sector surpluses are a key source of deflationary pressure. Corporate savings surged in the 1990s, primarily because net interest payments slumped, and have since remained... 2nd May 2023 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Bank stress continues with First Republic collapse The collapse of First Republic Bank is no big surprise – it had been teetering on the edge since suffering $100bn in deposit withdrawals mostly in March – but it’s a timely reminder that banking... 1st May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr) & Construction Spending (Mar) The trivial rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to a still depressed 47.1 in April, from 46.3, contrasts with the more substantial recovery in the alternative S&P Global PMI but echoes the more... 1st May 2023 · 2 mins read
