Chief Economist's Note ‘Greedflation’ debate muddles inflation’s symptoms with its cause It’s energising would-be trustbusters in the White House. It’s dragging UK supermarket bosses before Parliament. And, according to the IMF, it’s played a role in driving inflation across Europe... 3rd July 2023
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Australia’s house-price rebound showed no signs of slowing in June. However, with the RBA set to swing its rate hammer a few more times, we’re sticking with our view that the upturn will prove... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q2 2023) Today’s Tankan survey showed a turnaround for the flagging manufacturing sector, while the services sector has become even more bullish. And the rise in business condition readings across all... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumption and core inflation losing momentum The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last. 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s dovish tone is coming back to haunt it The hawkish comments made by the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, at this week’s ECB annual Sintra gathering marks the latest step by the Bank to get on the front foot in its fight against... 30th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr.) The stagnation in GDP in April was weaker than expected but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a sharp rise in GDP in May, quarterly growth should still be a touch higher than the Bank of... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (May) The May income & spending data appear to confirm that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, while also providing encouraging signs that core inflation is gradually easing. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final) The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the... 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do as economy is holding up Although CPI data released this week showed a sharp slowdown in headline inflation, it’s clear that underlying price pressures remain strong. What’s more, yesterday’s retail sales data revealed an... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector... 29th June 2023 · 20 mins read
