Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 10th July 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply of both labour and housing improves The data this week showed big improvements in supply in both the labour and housing markets, which should give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI inflation will continue to decline. We still... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilience points to July rate hike The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% this week, as markets interpreted the minutes of the mid-June FOMC meeting as hawkish and reacted to signs that, although labour market conditions may... 7th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25 Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our... 7th July 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Yield curve’s recession warnings could be right this time The gilt yield curve is now the most inverted it has been in 23 years. That’s consistent with our view that a recession is just around the corner. Indeed, we think it’s only a matter of time before... 7th July 2023 · 10 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June was the weakest gain since December 2020 and suggests labour market conditions are finally beginning to ease more markedly. That said, it is unlikely to... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surge in employment in June was not quite as strong as it looks, with hours worked essentially unchanged last month, but still suggests that another rate hike at the Bank of Canada’s meeting next... 7th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pay hikes in collective bargaining agreements soar Notwithstanding the RBA's decision to leave rates on hold on Tuesday, we still expect the Bank to deliver three more 25bp rate hikes before bringing its tightening cycle to an end. Indeed, the case... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited fallout from Chinese export curbs China’s curbs on exports of germanium and gallium probably won’t make much of a dent on Japan’s economy. There would be a much bigger impact if China were to restrict rare earth exports as well. But... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market remains resilient The fall in job openings in May suggests that labour shortages continue to ease, although the rebound in the job quits rate implies that wage growth is set to slow only gradually. 6th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily UK recession may stem gilt market bleeding We still think a recession is on the way in the UK, and that it will bring gilt yields back down. 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
