UK Economics Update BoE bares its teeth, but needs to bite harder The 50 basis point (bps) interest rate rise by the Bank of England today, from 4.50% to a near 15-year high of 5.00%, is unlikely to be the last hike given the UK’s higher and longer lasting inflation... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June) 22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in April suggests that household spending was resilient going into the second quarter. Both the preliminary estimate for May and the recent rebound in... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Housing Monthly Dashboard Our new Dashboard allows clients to track the key housing market indicators that we follow in real time. This Update outlines what has driven recent developments in these indicators, and our view for... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Meeting (Forecast Change) In response to May’s inflation data, released earlier today, we now expect the MPC to raise interest rates by 50bps to 5.00% at tomorrow’s meeting. 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2023) May’s poor public finances figures cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big pre-election tax cuts while still meeting his fiscal rules. 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2023) The news that CPI inflation stayed at 8.7% in April (consensus 8.4%, BoE 8.3%) and that core CPI inflation rose again, from 6.8% to a new 31-year high of 7.1% (consensus 6.8%), will have been seen in... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA bond sales wouldn’t be a big headwind The Reserve Bank of Australia is considering actively selling its bond holdings rather than merely letting them shrink gradually via bond redemptions. The main motivation seems to be to reduce... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus What will be the damage from 6% mortgage rates? A return to mortgage rates of around 6% for the first time since 2007 guarantees a renewed slump in mortgage lending and a further leg down in house prices. Were mortgage rates to be sustained at that... 20th June 2023 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our S&P 500 forecasts We don’t think growing enthusiasm about AI will be enough to stop the S&P 500 from declining if, as we expect, the US economy falls into recession later this year. Nonetheless, we now think the index... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun.) The recovery in house prices continued in May, with the sales-to-new listing ratio pointing to further gains ahead. Rising interest rates will have a more limited impact on home purchases than... 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
