Global Markets Update When & why the stock market has ridden out a recession The stock market in the US has rarely rallied in recessions that have taken place there since the mid-1850s. Our forecast is that it will take a knock amid a recession in H2 2023 before powering ahead... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul.) The sharp rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 72.6 in early July, from 64.4, leaves it close to a two-year high. That said, it remains fairly weak by historic standards, and... 14th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Paying particular attention to pay growth The government’s decision to grant pay rises of 5-7% for some public sector workers will probably add to the persistence of inflation and, for the Bank of England, trump the recent easing in some... 14th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (June) The fall in CPIF inflation, the Riksbank’s target variable, in June was smaller than policymakers expected, which will encourage them to raise the policy rate from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next meeting... 14th July 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only deliver two more rate hikes Inflation seems to be overshooting the RBA’s forecasts and the recent acceleration in pay hikes in enterprise bargaining agreements will add to the Bank’s concerns that inflation expectations may... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly May wage data hints at virtuous wage-price cycle Regular pay growth was the strongest in May in almost three decades and suggests that we may have underestimated the influence the stellar result from this year’s annual spring wage negotiations will... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from “excess” savings now exhausted The resilience of consumption over the past year is partly because households have been willing to save less of their income than before the pandemic, which lends some support to the idea that... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Banks rein in supply of credit, weaker demand will be next Rising interest rates have led lenders to rein in the supply of credit to households in Q2, but they haven’t yet curtailed demand. That said, the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2023) The narrowing in interest margins reported by mortgage lenders in the Credit Conditions Survey suggests that mortgage rates won’t fall significantly anytime soon. Meanwhile, it became more difficult... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Why don’t TIPS yields matter anymore? Not so long ago, a higher 10-year TIPS yield almost invariably meant an underperformance of US “growth” stocks vis-à-vis their “value” peers, a lower gold price, and a stronger dollar. That’s changed... 13th July 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun. 23) As we expected, the rise in the average quoted mortgage rate from 4.4% in May to 5.1% in June caused agreed sales and new buyer enquiries to slump. The deterioration in market conditions has left... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Weak yen won’t provide much boost to economy Last year’s sharp weakening of the yen hasn’t boosted goods exports, not least because most exports are invoiced in foreign currency and exporters haven’t slashed prices. Instead, it has lifted... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update 5.0% likely to be the peak The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators... 12th July 2023 · 3 mins read
