Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 3rd August 2023, 3:00PM BST Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB. And the release of the BoE’s new...
Global Economics Update PMIs: Clear signs that services activity is now slowing July’s flash PMIs suggest that activity slowed further at the start of Q3. Industry remains the weak spot, but the outlook for the services sector has also deteriorated noticeably. And while this... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Boost to newbuild volumes over New home construction has been surprisingly resilient to weaker demand so far this year. But that partly reflects activity being brought forward before building standards were tightened in June. With... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash activity PMIs suggest that the resilience in activity has eased further and that domestic inflationary pressures are starting to slow faster. That supports our view that the Bank of... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash PMI readings suggest manufacturers continue to struggle while the services sector remains resilient. And while manufacturing output prices inched up, the sizeable fall since the high last... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back; disinflation points to sterling peak The US dollar has rebounded over the past two days and looks set to unwind much of last week’s fall. With US data somewhat mixed, much of this rebound in the greenback seems to have been driven by a... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation back at 2.0%, at least by one measure Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June and, excluding mortgage interest costs, was in line with the 2.0% target. While the Bank’s preferred core measures are still higher, the weakness of retail... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to pivot in H1 next year The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE last to halt hikes and last to cut We think UK core inflation will ease to 2% by the end of 2024 as the effects of the rises in interest rates are felt. But the UK’s more persistent labour supply shortfall than elsewhere suggests this... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The US yield curve could stay inverted for a while yet The Treasury yield curve has been inverted for a long time by past standards, but we think it could remain so until next year even if there’s a recession in the interim. 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023) June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2023) The further increase in retail sales volumes in June suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But our view that interest rates will rise further, from 5.00% now to a peak... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
