Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last month, but that was a bit better than we were expecting given the CARTS data. It also followed two strong months of gains. As things stand, we now estimate that real consumption increased by 0.1% m/m in April, which is better than the 0.1% decline we had pencilled in. We now forecast that second-quarter GDP growth will be 2.5%, with consumption growth at a healthy 2.9%.
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