US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Oct. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index suggests activity in the sector lost some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter. Together with the increase in its manufacturing counterpart, this leaves... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep. 2026) The negligible narrowing in the trade deficit in September, as export growth barely outpaced import growth, is broadly consistent with the BEA’s assumptions in its advance estimate of Q3 GDP... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Oct. 2026) The rise in the ISM manufacturing survey in October suggests that activity in the sector gained some momentum at the start of the fourth quarter, thanks in part to the ongoing AI buildout. The drop... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Sep. 2026) & GDP (Q3 2026) The strong Q3 GDP and September PCE outturns validate the Fed’s assessment that economic activity is strong and price pressures remain elevated. That said, the slowdown in consumer spending in... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) Officials urged a gradualist approach to tightening during the inter-meeting period, and this was reflected in today’s decision to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%. That said... 28th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing output in September will ease jitters around August’s unexpected fall. While the strength of the AI buildout looks to be masking weakness in other areas feeling the bite... 16th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep. 2026) The muted rise in control group retail sales suggests that real consumption was little changed in September. While that still leaves real GDP growth on track to rise to a little over 3% annualised in... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise in producer prices in September was driven in part by the components that feed directly through to the core PCE deflator, with our estimate now pointing to a 0.35% m/m gain. That... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in September was broad-based rather than due to any obvious temporary factors, therefore bringing an October rate hike back into play and presenting upside risks to our... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep. 15-16) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 16th September confirm broad support for raising the target range at that meeting, as well as further tightening down the line. However, given the... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2026) The widening of the trade deficit in August on the back of a sharp rise in imports suggests third quarter GDP growth will be well below our current forecast of 4.0%. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index leaves our activity-weighted composite index consistent with GDP growth of around 2.5% in the third quarter, while its S&P Global counterpart points to an even... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug. 2026) The broad-based decline in manufacturing output in August suggests the factory sector may be on a weaker footing than we had previously thought, particularly as this does not capture the latest rise... 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
