The weakness in GDP growth at the end of last year was more severe than initially thought but, given the government shutdown appears to have been a significant drag, we anticipate a strong rebound in growth in the first quarter, particularly with a favourable fiscal backdrop. For a net exporter like the US, we expect the impact of the oil price shock to be muted, although initially it could be a drag as households’ purchasing power immediately takes a hit, while any boost to investment could take a little longer to feed through.
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