The slight rise in the headline ISM Services Index in July leaves our weighted composite ISM index at a level consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised. While a little underwhelming, this still marks a decent result given resumed tensions in the Middle East last month. While the prices paid index implies that inflation pressures are still strong, we’ll have to wait until the survey next month to gauge how much of that is related to the resumed rise in fuel costs in July, which is now being reversed.
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