The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.6 in April, from 50.8, is another illustration that most firms are able to shrug off the tariff chaos. Admittedly, at 51.3, our weighted composite of the manufacturing and services indices would usually be consistent with a near-stagnation in GDP. But these surveys have been a poor guide to actual GDP growth for some time now and were weaker than the current readings through most of 2023 and 2024, when GDP growth remained unusually strong.
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