The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher. That decline also stands in contrast to the latest improvement evident in the regional Fed manufacturing survey and the alternative national survey from S&P Global. More encouragingly, the drop in the prices paid index to a nine-month low of 58.0 suggests the tariff-related pressure on manufacturers’ costs is easing as trade policy stabilises.
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