Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget

The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller taxes, possibly because of Starmer’s political vulnerability. As a result, the risk is that the Budget reduces GDP growth by more than the 0.3% or so the normal fiscal multipliers would suggest.

We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 19th November to discuss what to expect in the Budget and what it could mean for the UK economy, the UK housing market and the financial markets. (Register here.)