Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals

Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were among the largest risers this week after Saudi Arabia and Russia kicked off the week by announcing additional oil production and export cuts. Meanwhile, China served a timely reminder of its dominant position in the upstream supply chain of materials that will be critical for the green transition and that fracturing will add to the frictions and costs of that transition. Looking to the week ahead, on Wednesday, commodity prices could get a boost if, as we expect, core inflation in the US dropped sharply in June. China’s trade data, released on Thursday, are likely to reveal that oil imports remained strong in June.