Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds

US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than upward pressure on US steel prices. Meanwhile, oil prices are taking their lead from demand concerns, as the prospect of weaker US growth increases the downside risks to our already below-consensus end-2026 oil price forecast.

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