OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting
The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its voluntary production cuts even more of a close call. On the face of it, signs of weak oil demand would argue in favour of the group keeping the cuts in place. But on balance we think that worries over conceding market share, and a desire amongst some members to pump before peak oil demand bites later this decade, may see the group press ahead. Against this backdrop, there is a rising chance that oil prices fall to our end-2025 forecast of $70pb more quickly than we currently anticipate. Meanwhile, given that there is now a 66% chance of a La Niña event developing before November, agricultural prices could receive a boost. But as ever, much will depend on the strength and duration of any La Niña episode.
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