The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains

Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned blocs will continue as before. Where production does shift away from China, production is likely to move to other EMs within the US-aligned bloc rather than result in a great wave of reshoring. With some trade links severed while others are strengthened, world trade as a share of GDP over the coming years is likely to flatline at around 30% rather than fall.