We remain positive about the potential for AI to boost productivity but are less confident that AI revenues will grow rapidly enough to sustain the current pace of investment. While it is difficult to predict exactly when the boom in capital expenditure (CapEx) will turn, our central forecast is that AI investment growth slows next year and the level of investment falls outright in 2028. The AI CapEx boom will therefore go from boosting to dragging on GDP growth, especially in the US and major Asian tech exporters.
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