Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last?

The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an intervening rout in the Treasury market. It is hard to predict the future given Donald Trump’s mercurial nature. But our best guess is that the next hundred days will be more favourable for the US stock market and the dollar than the last hundred days have been, as his administration’s focus shifts to fiscal policy.