Although second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, the downgrade to GDP in June and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in July imply that third-quarter growth will be much weaker than the Bank is forecasting. That leads us to think that we are now close to 50/50 in terms of the chance of a 50bp cut or a 25bp cut next week, whereas markets currently put the chance of a 25bp move at 80%.
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