Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2026) The further widening of the goods trade surplus to a more than four-year high in September was not quite as positive as it looks, as it was almost entirely due to a price-driven rise in energy exports... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug. 2026) The unchanged GDP reading in August and projected 0.1% m/m fall in September implies that the economy grew by 1.3% annualised in the third quarter. This is not only far below the Bank of Canada’s... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2026) The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise the policy rate shows the balance of risks has now tipped towards the threat of energy-driven inflation over the downside risks from trade tensions. The Bank... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based rise in retail sales in August largely reflects a rebound from July rather than a genuine strengthening in consumer demand, though there were still signs in the data that households... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026) The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of Canada from hiking next week despite Governor Tiff... 19th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2026) The rebound in manufacturing sales in August was purely down to price effects, with volumes unchanged as new Section 338 tariffs began to weigh on the factory sector. Combined with a sharp contraction... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2026) Large back-to-back employment declines in August and September, alongside a tick up in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, mean it will take a big upside surprise in the September CPI release in a couple... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2026) The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides... 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2026) The unchanged GDP reading in July and small projected rise in August should mean GDP growth slowed to around 1.4% annualised in the third quarter, given the weakness we expect this month amid the hit... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July isn’t the end of the world, given the advance indicator implies that sales volumes fully rebounded in August, but consumer... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) & Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2026) The second consecutive firm rise in core price pressures in August, coming against a backdrop of surging oil prices, means it now looks increasingly likely the Bank of Canada will follow other major... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2026) The sharp 41,700 fall in employment in August and further slowdown in wage growth pushes back against the idea that the economy has decisively turned a corner, and leaves the Bank of Canada’s hawkish... 4th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (July 2026) The sharp narrowing of the goods trade surplus in July was not only a price effect from lower energy and metal prices, as export volumes fell too, implying that net trade was a drag on GDP at the... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2026) The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish message alongside its policy rate announcement today, noting that “the upside risks to inflation have increased” and it is “prepared to adjust monetary... 2nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2026 and Jun.) The breakdown of second-quarter GDP growth was even better than the solid 3.3% annualised gain might suggest, although the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in July and the headwinds from new US... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Unveils Retaliatory Tariffs and Relief Package The retaliatory tariffs announced today largely match the Section 338 tariffs imposed on Canada last week, reflecting a response which is politically popular but economically insignificant – and... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
