Skipping a cut

With CPI inflation almost double the 2.0% target and the Budget in a few weeks’ time, we think that a narrow majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest rates at 4.00% on Thursday 6th November. But the MPC will probably emphasise that this is not the end for rate cuts. We’re expecting the next cut in February, but December is possible. Either way, we still expect Bank Rate to fall to 3.00% next year rather than to the 3.25-3.50% priced into markets.

We’ll discuss in online Drop-Ins Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy at 3pm on Thursday 30th October (register here) and the Bank’s rate decision at 3pm on Thursday 6th November (register here).