BoE Watch: Delayed cuts, cancelled cuts or interest rate hikes?

There are plausible scenarios in which the Middle East conflict prompts the Bank of England to delay interest rate cuts, cancel interest rate cuts or hike interest rates. As delay seems the most likely at the moment, we have changed our central forecast so that Bank Rate stays at 3.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 19th March and at the meetings in April and June too. But if the new hump in inflation is looking short-lived, the Bank could still cut rates further, and perhaps eventually even to 3.00%.

At 3pm GMT on Thursday 19th March we will be hosting a 20-minute online Drop-In to discuss the outlook for Bank of England, ECB and Fed policy. (Register here.)