The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much softer line on trade than some of his inflammatory rhetoric earlier this year would have suggested. We broadly agree with the first two conclusions and partly agree with the third, although we are still not completely convinced that he will stick to a much softer line on trade over the entire four years of his (first) term.
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