We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first reduction probably now coming before the end of this year. That prompt action should be enough to avoid an outright recession, with GDP growth then accelerating again to 2.0% in 2021.
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