Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market conditions should push inflation up rapidly in the US, but inflation elsewhere will remain well below target. Against this backdrop, monetary policy will probably still diverge by more than the markets currently anticipate. Meanwhile, growth should pick up a bit in emerging economies, led by a policy-induced rebound in China and stabilisation in some of the major commodity producers.
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